Estudiantes De Merida 1-0 Caracas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 11 Aug 2025

📅11/08/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
29%
2.88
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
31%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estudiantes De Merida EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Caracas FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+8% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.44/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.90
+16% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
19.2 Crosses 16.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estudiantes De Merida
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Caracas FC
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
322 Passes 299
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
21 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2025 Caracas FC Caracas FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
16.08.2024 Caracas FC Caracas FC 2-3 HT 1-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
25.02.2024 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 0-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
05.08.2023 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 0-2 HT 0-1 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
09.04.2023 Caracas FC Caracas FC 2-2 HT 0-0 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida VEN
15.10.2022 Estudiantes De Merida Estudiantes De Merida 1-1 HT 1-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estudiantes De Merida
1-0
AWAY Caracas FC
1.48 xG 0.69
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
248 Passes 398
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 15
7 Crosses 21
7 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Estudiantes De Merida vs Caracas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estudiantes De Merida squeezed past Caracas FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Estudiantes De Merida as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Estudiantes De Merida had 41% of the ball to Caracas FC's 59%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.48 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Estudiantes De Merida and 1.33 for Caracas FC.

What was the final score of Estudiantes De Merida vs Caracas FC?

Estudiantes De Merida 1-0 Caracas FC in the Venezuela - Premier League on 11/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estudiantes De Merida vs Caracas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estudiantes De Merida win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estudiantes De Merida 41%, draw 29%, Caracas FC 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estudiantes De Merida), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Estudiantes De Merida) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
VEN More Venezuela - Premier League
11 Aug 2025
00:00 Metropolitanos vs Deportivo La Guaira Analysis →
03:30 Academia Puerto Cabello vs UCV Analysis →