Hume City 2-3 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - FFA Cup, 11 Sep 2024

📅11/09/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
36%
Away Win
37%
-0.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hume City EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 40%
+44% / +44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+24% / +129% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
299 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hume City
0W-2D-4L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
346 Passes 168
76% Pass Accuracy 59%
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
30.08.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
01.06.2024 Hume City Hume City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
26.02.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
09.07.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-2 HT 1-1 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
08.04.2023 Hume City Hume City 0-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
18.06.2022 Hume City Hume City 1-3 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hume City
2-3
AWAY South Melbourne
1.95 xG 1.93
59% Ball Possession 41%
23 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 6
494 Passes 304
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hume City vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne edged past Hume City 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; South Melbourne found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hume City had 59% of the ball to South Melbourne's 41%, shots finished 23-19, expected goals 1.95 to 1.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hume City and 1.33 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Hume City vs South Melbourne?

Hume City 2-3 South Melbourne in the Australia - FFA Cup on 11/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hume City vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hume City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hume City 38%, draw 26%, South Melbourne 36%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hume City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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