South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 30 Aug 2024

📅30/08/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.21
2-3 Goals
33%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.66 — our 28% vs market 22.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-4.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.0pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Hume City EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.44/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.09/2.02
-23% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Hume City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
207 Passes 338
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.06.2024 Hume City Hume City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
26.02.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
09.07.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-2 HT 1-1 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
08.04.2023 Hume City Hume City 0-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
18.06.2022 Hume City Hume City 1-3 HT 0-3 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
18.03.2022 South Melbourne South Melbourne 5-0 HT 4-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Hume City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

South Melbourne edged past Hume City 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day South Melbourne made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for South Melbourne and 0.50 for Hume City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Hume City?

South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City in the Australia - National Premier League on 30/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Hume City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 40%, draw 29%, Hume City 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (South Melbourne) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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