Şili 1-2 Bolivya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Sep 2024

📅11/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
64%
1.28
Draw
22%
4.95
Away
14%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 30% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.46
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
27.0
X/1
25%
3.22
X/2
4%
23.15
X/X
8%
7.43
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
5%
20.3
2/X
6%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
64%
Home Win
74%
-9.8pp
22%
Draw
17%
+4.2pp
14%
Away Win
9%
+5.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.3pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Şili EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolivya EU Bookmakers 11%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -4%
2.44/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/2.59
-16% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
478 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.4
27.7 Crosses 9.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Şili
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bolivya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.66 xG 1.05
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
410 Passes 209
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.06.2023 Bolivya Bolivya 0-0 HT 0-0 Şili Şili HAZTUR
01.02.2022 Bolivya Bolivya 2-3 HT 1-1 Şili Şili DKE
19.06.2021 Şili Şili 1-0 HT 1-0 Bolivya Bolivya AKU
09.06.2021 Şili Şili 1-1 HT 0-0 Bolivya Bolivya DKE
27.03.2021 Şili Şili 2-1 HT 2-1 Bolivya Bolivya HAZ
05.09.2017 Bolivya Bolivya 1-0 HT 0-0 Şili Şili DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Şili
1-2
AWAY Bolivya
2.08 xG 1.38
75% Ball Possession 25%
19 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
474 Passes 123
86% Pass Accuracy 63%
33 Box Touches 8
39 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Şili vs Bolivya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolivya squeezed past Şili 2-1 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Şili at 64% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Şili had 75% of the ball to Bolivya's 25%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.08 to 1.38 — the balance of chances actually favoured Şili.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Şili had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Şili and 0.83 for Bolivya.

What was the final score of Şili vs Bolivya?

Şili 1-2 Bolivya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Şili vs Bolivya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Şili win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Şili 64%, draw 22%, Bolivya 14%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Şili) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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