Ekvador 1-0 Peru — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Sep 2024

Ekvador
1-0 HT 0-0
Peru
📅11/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.43
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
26%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.75
No
62%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
5.22
6+ Goals
7%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.78
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
23.15
X/1
12%
3.15
X/2
12%
16.4
X/X
9%
4.51
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
9%
16.5
2/X
12%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
66%
-15.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
25%
Away Win
11%
+14.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
-0.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
+0.1pp
38%
BTTS Yes
32%
+5.8pp
62%
BTTS No
68%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ekvador EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Peru EU Bookmakers 14%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +18%
1.39/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/1.50
-21% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +116%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
17.2 Crosses 8.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ekvador
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Peru
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 0.91
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
311 Passes 345
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2022 Peru Peru 1-1 HT 0-1 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
24.06.2021 Ekvador Ekvador 2-2 HT 2-0 Peru Peru AKU
09.06.2021 Ekvador Ekvador 1-2 HT 0-0 Peru Peru DKE
06.09.2019 Peru Peru 0-1 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
16.11.2018 Peru Peru 0-2 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ
06.09.2017 Ekvador Ekvador 1-2 HT 0-0 Peru Peru DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ekvador
1-0
AWAY Peru
0.69 xG 0.13
70% Ball Possession 30%
11 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 0
480 Passes 164
90% Pass Accuracy 68%
15 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ekvador vs Peru
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ekvador nicked a narrow win over Peru 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ekvador as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ekvador had 70% of the ball to Peru's 30%, shots finished 11-2, expected goals 0.69 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ekvador and 1.17 for Peru.

What was the final score of Ekvador vs Peru?

Ekvador 1-0 Peru in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ekvador vs Peru?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ekvador win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ekvador 50%, draw 24%, Peru 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ekvador), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ekvador) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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