Paraguay 1-0 Brezilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 11 Sep 2024

Paraguay
1-0 HT 1-0
Brezilya
📅11/09/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Paraguay vs Brezilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.4
Draw
31%
3.72
Away
49%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.64
Over 2.5
33%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.29
No
61%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
39%
2.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
4.6
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.56 — our 39% vs market 32.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.55
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
6%
20.3
X/1
8%
12.45
X/2
22%
3.38
X/X
16%
4.61
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
19%
1.95
2/X
9%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
15%
+4.9pp
31%
Draw
23%
+7.2pp
49%
Away Win
61%
-12.1pp
67%
Under 2.5
57%
+10.1pp
33%
Over 2.5
43%
-10.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.0pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Paraguay v Brezilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paraguay EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Brezilya EU Bookmakers 66%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
0.78/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.88/0.67
-90% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +84% / -7%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
280 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 84%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
17.9 Crosses 12.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 0.7

Paraguay vs Brezilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paraguay
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Brezilya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.53 xG 2.59
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
226 Passes 458
75% Pass Accuracy 88%
9 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.06.2024 Paraguay Paraguay 1-4 HT 0-3 Brezilya Brezilya AKU
02.02.2022 Brezilya Brezilya 4-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
09.06.2021 Paraguay Paraguay 0-2 HT 0-1 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
28.06.2019 Brezilya Brezilya 0-0 HT 0-0 Paraguay Paraguay AKU
29.03.2017 Brezilya Brezilya 3-0 HT 1-0 Paraguay Paraguay DKE
30.03.2016 Paraguay Paraguay 2-2 HT 1-0 Brezilya Brezilya DKE

Paraguay 1-0 Brezilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paraguay
1-0
AWAY Brezilya
0.37 xG 0.57
29% Ball Possession 71%
7 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
155 Passes 481
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
6 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paraguay vs Brezilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paraguay edged past Brezilya 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Brezilya at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Paraguay had 29% of the ball to Brezilya's 71%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.37 to 0.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Paraguay and 2.50 for Brezilya.

What was the final score of Paraguay vs Brezilya?

Paraguay 1-0 Brezilya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 11/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paraguay vs Brezilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Paraguay 20%, draw 31%, Brezilya 49%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Brezilya) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brezilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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