CF Os Belenenses 3-0 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.45
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
19%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.06
No
53%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
65%
-7.4pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.8pp
19%
Away Win
14%
+4.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 17%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +25%
2.30/0.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.07
+41% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +38%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Os Belenenses
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
304 Passes 296
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.12.2024 CF Os Belenenses 2-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
01.09.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-2 HT 1-1 CF Os Belenenses POR3
30.04.2023 CF Os Belenenses 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
13.11.2022 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-1 HT 0-1 CF Os Belenenses POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Os Belenenses
3-0
AWAY Sporting Covilha
54% Ball Possession 46%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses ran out comfortable winners over Sporting Covilha 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had CF Os Belenenses as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CF Os Belenenses had 54% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 46%, shots finished 19-6.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for CF Os Belenenses and 1.50 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha?

CF Os Belenenses 3-0 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a CF Os Belenenses win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split CF Os Belenenses 57%, draw 24%, Sporting Covilha 19%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CF Os Belenenses), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CF Os Belenenses) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
11 Oct 2025
13:00 Lusitano Évora 1911 vs Academica Analysis →
17:30 Mafra vs Amora FC Analysis →
18:00 Trofense vs Varzim Analysis →