Plaza Colonia 0-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.8pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+4.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plaza Colonia EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 34%
-16% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +2%
0.97/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.21
-21% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -1%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
238 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plaza Colonia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Progreso
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-0 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
31.10.2021 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 2-1 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
05.07.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 0-2 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
21.01.2021 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
23.02.2020 Progreso Progreso 2-2 HT 1-1 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia URU
24.10.2019 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia 0-1 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plaza Colonia
0-1
AWAY Progreso
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Plaza Colonia vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso edged past Plaza Colonia 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Progreso found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Plaza Colonia had 57% of the ball to Progreso's 43%, shots finished 9-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Plaza Colonia and 1.17 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Plaza Colonia vs Progreso?

Plaza Colonia 0-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plaza Colonia vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plaza Colonia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Plaza Colonia 39%, draw 26%, Progreso 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Plaza Colonia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Plaza Colonia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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11 Oct 2025
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