North Carolina 0-2 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 11 Oct 2025

📅11/10/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
12.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
0.99/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.74
-3% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
15.2 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME North Carolina
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.52 xG 0.94
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
390 Passes 516
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 0-0 HT 0-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
09.05.2024 North Carolina North Carolina 1-2 HT 0-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising ABDK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
0-2
AWAY Phoenix Rising
0.51 xG 1.49
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
315 Passes 212
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising saw off North Carolina 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Phoenix Rising made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, North Carolina had 58% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 42%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.51 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for North Carolina and 1.00 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Phoenix Rising?

North Carolina 0-2 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 11/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated an Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 36%, draw 27%, Phoenix Rising 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Phoenix Rising), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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