North Carolina 1-2 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 9 May 2024

📅09/05/2024 · 🕒02:27 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
37%
3.11
Away
27%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.79
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.19
6+ Goals
10%
20.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 35% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
25%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.8pp
37%
Draw
28%
+9.1pp
27%
Away Win
33%
-6.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
372 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
Crosses 28.0
Yellow Cards 5.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
1-2
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.89 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
541 Passes 572
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising squeezed past North Carolina 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 37% / 27% — and on the day Phoenix Rising made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, North Carolina had 49% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 51%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 1.89 to 1.02 — the balance of chances actually favoured North Carolina.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Phoenix Rising?

North Carolina 1-2 Phoenix Rising in the USA - Open Cup on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 36%, draw 37%, Phoenix Rising 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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