Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 Birmingham Legion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 9 May 2024

📅09/05/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.2
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
26%
3.02
6+ Goals
11%
9.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
54%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham Legion EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Birmingham Legion
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.88 xG 0.94
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
377 Passes 322
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.10.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-3 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
16.07.2023 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-0 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
02.04.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 0-2 HT 0-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
24.09.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 1-1 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
14.03.2022 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion 1-1 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
14.11.2021 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Legion Birmingham Legion USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
6-4
AWAY Birmingham Legion
2.77 xG 1.69
47% Ball Possession 53%
20 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 6
395 Passes 466
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 21
28 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies beat Birmingham Legion 6-4. Half-time: 3-0. 10 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tampa Bay Rowdies as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 6-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 47% of the ball to Birmingham Legion's 53%, shots finished 20-13, expected goals 2.77 to 1.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham Legion led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.33 for Birmingham Legion.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-4 Birmingham Legion in the USA - Open Cup on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Birmingham Legion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 52%, draw 22%, Birmingham Legion 27%. The final score 6-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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