New Mexico United 4-2 Real Salt Lake — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 9 May 2024

📅09/05/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
42%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.2pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-8.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Salt Lake EU Bookmakers 55%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +64% / +38%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
Crosses 25.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
4-2
AWAY Real Salt Lake
0.65 xG 0.41
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
212 Passes 454
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 7
4 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Real Salt Lake
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United saw off Real Salt Lake 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Real Salt Lake at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 36% of the ball to Real Salt Lake's 64%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.65 to 0.41.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Real Salt Lake?

New Mexico United 4-2 Real Salt Lake in the USA - Open Cup on 09/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Real Salt Lake?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Salt Lake win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 32%, draw 26%, Real Salt Lake 42%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Salt Lake)
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