Monterrey 2-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Nov 2024

📅11/11/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
3.1
6+ Goals
13%
9.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-12.4pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.92/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.70
+0% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
364 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
20.0 Crosses 12.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Leon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.81 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
296 Passes 350
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.09.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
28.02.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
07.08.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 5-1 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
02.03.2022 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.10.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
2-1
AWAY Leon
2.35 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
23 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 8
354 Passes 286
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey edged past Leon 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Monterrey had 56% of the ball to Leon's 44%, shots finished 23-12, expected goals 2.35 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Monterrey and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Leon?

Monterrey 2-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 11/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 49%, draw 27%, Leon 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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