Leon 2-0 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Apr 2024

Leon
2-0 HT 1-0
Monterrey
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Leon vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
35%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
34%
+3.2pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
36%
Away Win
40%
-4.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leon v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +19%
1.40/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.27
+1% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +35%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
299 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.6 Crosses 16.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6

Leon vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Monterrey
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.09.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
28.02.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
07.08.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 5-1 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
02.03.2022 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
17.10.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
11.03.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK

Leon 2-0 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
2-0
AWAY Monterrey
1.79 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
279 Passes 322
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Leon vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon got the better of Monterrey 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Leon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Leon had 47% of the ball to Monterrey's 53%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.79 to 0.84.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leon and 1.67 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Leon vs Monterrey?

Leon 2-0 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Leon 37%, draw 28%, Monterrey 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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