Pumas UNAM 2-1 Club America — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
9%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.97 — our 30% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+4.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-6.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.6pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Club America EU Bookmakers 50%
+8% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +9%
1.24/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.11
-1% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
252 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 80%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
15.7 Crosses 18.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Club America
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.75 xG 1.42
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 Passes 327
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Club America Club America 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
23.04.2023 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
14.08.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-3 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
27.02.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
28.11.2021 Club America Club America 1-3 HT 1-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
25.11.2021 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
2-1
AWAY Club America
0.66 xG 1.38
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
313 Passes 486
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 21
6 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Club America
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM edged past Club America 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Club America at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 40% of the ball to Club America's 60%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.66 to 1.38 — on chances, Club America could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.00 for Club America.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Club America?

Pumas UNAM 2-1 Club America in the Mexico - Primera on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Club America?

Before kick-off our model rated an Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 32%, draw 27%, Club America 41%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Club America) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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