Tijuana 2-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Nov 2024

Tijuana
2-1 HT 0-1
Puebla
📅11/11/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Tijuana vs Puebla Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.83
6+ Goals
12%
7.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.73 — our 24% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.0pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Puebla — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
-14% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.69/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.99
-12% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 76%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
22.6 Crosses 15.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6

Tijuana vs Puebla Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Puebla
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.25 xG 1.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
291 Passes 292
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 3-1 HT 0-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
02.09.2023 Puebla Puebla 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
30.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-2 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 3-3 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
29.01.2022 Puebla Puebla 3-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
18.08.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK

Tijuana 2-1 Puebla — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
2-1
AWAY Puebla
1.87 xG 0.78
80% Ball Possession 20%
27 Total Shots 5
11 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 2
639 Passes 85
89% Pass Accuracy 46%
54 Box Touches 11
40 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana nicked a narrow win over Puebla 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Tijuana had 80% of the ball to Puebla's 20%, shots finished 27-5, expected goals 1.87 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tijuana and 2.67 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Puebla?

Tijuana 2-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 11/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 54%, draw 24%, Puebla 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ BTTS No
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