Burton Albion 1-3 Crewe Alexandra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 11 Nov 2025

📅11/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.94
6+ Goals
12%
9.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
9%
2/1
12%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.2pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.5pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Crewe Alexandra EU Bookmakers 36%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.52/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/0.83
-6% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +83%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
22.8 Crosses 11.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.76 xG 1.12
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
277 Passes 367
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.07.2023 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-2 Burton Albion Burton Albion HAZ
01.01.2022 Burton Albion Burton Albion 4-1 HT 3-1 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
18.09.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 2-0 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
13.03.2021 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 0-3 HT 0-3 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
05.12.2020 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-1 HT 0-0 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra İN1
03.09.2019 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 1-3 HT 0-3 Burton Albion Burton Albion İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-3
AWAY Crewe Alexandra
3.69 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
26 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
280 Passes 327
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
35 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Crewe Alexandra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crewe Alexandra got the better of Burton Albion 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Burton Albion at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 48% of the ball to Crewe Alexandra's 52%, shots finished 26-13, expected goals 3.69 to 1.40 — on chances, Burton Albion could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Burton Albion and 1.17 for Crewe Alexandra.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Crewe Alexandra?

Burton Albion 1-3 Crewe Alexandra in the England - Futbol League Cup on 11/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Crewe Alexandra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burton Albion win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 46%, draw 22%, Crewe Alexandra 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Burton Albion) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burton Albion) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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