Newport County 0-1 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 11 Nov 2025

Newport County
0-1 HT 0-0
Exeter City
📅11/11/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Futbol League Cup – 2025/2026

Newport County vs Exeter City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.93
6+ Goals
10%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.8pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.8pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Exeter City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 45%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
0.98/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.81
-38% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
265 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 74%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.1 Crosses 23.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.0

Newport County vs Exeter City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport County
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Exeter City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.09 xG 0.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
247 Passes 224
64% Pass Accuracy 63%
20 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.08.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İNTK
02.04.2022 Newport County Newport County 0-1 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
16.10.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 2-2 HT 1-2 Newport County Newport County İN2
24.04.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 0-0 HT 0-0 Newport County Newport County İN2
16.02.2021 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
26.12.2019 Exeter City Exeter City 1-0 HT 1-0 Newport County Newport County İN2

Newport County 0-1 Exeter City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
0-1
AWAY Exeter City
0.24 xG 1.12
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 10
294 Passes 549
84% Pass Accuracy 90%
12 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City squeezed past Newport County 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 22% / 41% — and on the day Exeter City made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newport County had 37% of the ball to Exeter City's 63%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.24 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Newport County and 1.00 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Exeter City?

Newport County 0-1 Exeter City in the England - Futbol League Cup on 11/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Exeter City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Newport County 36%, draw 22%, Exeter City 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Exeter City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Exeter City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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