Real Madrid 2-5 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Super Cup, 12 Jan 2025

Real Madrid
2-5 HT 1-4
Barcelona
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Super Cup – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.89
Over 2.5
63%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.33
No
38%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.76
2-3 Goals
37%
2.14
4-5 Goals
33%
2.4
6+ Goals
11%
4.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.13
1/2
11%
23.85
1/X
6%
12.05
X/1
16%
6.0
X/2
15%
6.63
X/X
8%
6.32
2/1
10%
22.1
2/2
12%
3.59
2/X
8%
12.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.6pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
31%
+5.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
69%
-5.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
71%
-9.6pp
38%
BTTS No
29%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 39%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
3.21/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.63/0.96
+150% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
350 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 396 · 83%
44.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.0 Crosses 7.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Barcelona
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.87 xG 1.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
407 Passes 477
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
27 Box Touches 22
11 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-4 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
04.08.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ
21.04.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-2 HT 1-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
14.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 3-1 Barcelona Barcelona İSSK
28.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.07.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ

Real Madrid 2-5 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2-5
AWAY Barcelona
1.72 xG 2.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 5
344 Passes 376
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona ran out comfortable winners over Real Madrid 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 22% / 38%) promised a tight game; Barcelona found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Real Madrid had 49% of the ball to Barcelona's 51%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.72 to 2.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Real Madrid and 2.17 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Real Madrid 2-5 Barcelona in the Spain - Super Cup on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 40%, draw 22%, Barcelona 38%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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