Real Madrid 0-4 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 26 Oct 2024

Real Madrid
0-4 HT 0-0
Barcelona
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.63
Over 2.5
61%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.41
No
44%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.26
2-3 Goals
35%
2.1
4-5 Goals
30%
2.54
6+ Goals
14%
5.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.57
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
5%
13.0
X/1
16%
5.03
X/2
14%
7.63
X/X
8%
6.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
17.45
2/2
12%
4.54
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.45 — our 9% vs market 3.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.2pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.1pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
34%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
66%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
67%
-10.3pp
44%
BTTS No
33%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
1.61/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/0.89
+15% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +72% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
358 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 84%
31.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
20.1 Crosses 12.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Real Madrid vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Barcelona
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.12 xG 1.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
427 Passes 475
89% Pass Accuracy 89%
28 Box Touches 25
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.08.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 2-1 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ
21.04.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 3-2 HT 1-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
14.01.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-1 HT 3-1 Barcelona Barcelona İSSK
28.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-2 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
30.07.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 3-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ
05.04.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 0-4 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK

Real Madrid 0-4 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
0-4
AWAY Barcelona
1.46 xG 2.58
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 3
243 Passes 385
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona swept aside Real Madrid 4-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, over 2.5 goals (61%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Real Madrid had 41% of the ball to Barcelona's 59%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.46 to 2.58.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Real Madrid and 1.50 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Real Madrid 0-4 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 46%, draw 21%, Barcelona 33%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Real Madrid), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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