Valladolid 1-2 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 26 Oct 2024

Valladolid
1-2 HT 0-1
Villarreal
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Valladolid vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.55
6+ Goals
9%
14.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.55 — our 24% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.51
1/2
11%
24.45
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
9%
7.4
X/2
14%
4.39
X/X
15%
4.77
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
13%
2.66
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.0pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.7pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-9.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.8pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Valladolid v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valladolid EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 51%
+7% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.25/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/1.13
+6% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +29%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.0
19.6 Crosses 12.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6

Valladolid vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valladolid
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Villarreal
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.99 xG 1.54
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
248 Passes 446
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 28
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
15.04.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-2 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
13.08.2022 Valladolid Valladolid 0-3 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
13.05.2021 Valladolid Valladolid 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
02.11.2020 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1
08.02.2020 Valladolid Valladolid 1-1 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
21.09.2019 Villarreal Villarreal 2-0 HT 0-0 Valladolid Valladolid İS1

Valladolid 1-2 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valladolid
1-2
AWAY Villarreal
0.94 xG 2.31
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 6
354 Passes 448
86% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 31
22 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Valladolid vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal nicked a narrow win over Valladolid 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (31% / 31% / 38%) promised a tight game; Villarreal found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Valladolid had 45% of the ball to Villarreal's 55%, shots finished 7-21, expected goals 0.94 to 2.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Villarreal's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Valladolid and 1.83 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Valladolid vs Villarreal?

Valladolid 1-2 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valladolid vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Valladolid 31%, draw 31%, Villarreal 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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