Las Palmas 1-0 Girona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 26 Oct 2024

Las Palmas
1-0 HT 1-0
Girona
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Las Palmas vs Girona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.56
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
9%
5.34
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
5.88
X/X
14%
4.25
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
11%
4.09
2/X
8%
12.75
Value flag · X/2 at 5.88 — our 18% vs market 12.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
38%
-4.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+3.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Las Palmas v Girona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Girona EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.14/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.16
+18% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -19%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
15.5 Crosses 19.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Las Palmas vs Girona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Girona
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.10 xG 1.61
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
338 Passes 356
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-2 HT 0-1 Girona Girona İS1
03.09.2023 Girona Girona 1-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
12.03.2022 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-3 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS2
22.08.2021 Girona Girona 0-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2
19.03.2021 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-2 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS2
09.11.2020 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS2

Las Palmas 1-0 Girona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
1-0
AWAY Girona
0.88 xG 0.56
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
300 Passes 400
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Girona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Palmas edged past Girona 1-0.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 36%) promised a tight game; Las Palmas found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Las Palmas had 43% of the ball to Girona's 57%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.88 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Girona led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Las Palmas and 1.50 for Girona.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Girona?

Las Palmas 1-0 Girona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Girona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 34%, draw 30%, Girona 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Girona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Girona) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
26 Oct 2024
15:00 Valladolid vs Villarreal Analysis →
17:15 Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alaves Analysis →
22:00 Real Madrid vs Barcelona Analysis →