Southampton 3-0 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.1
Over Pick
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.72
No
48%
2.0
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.9
2-3
38%
1.81
4-5
25%
3.01
6+
13%
9.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.07
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.6
X/1
18%
3.95
X/2
10%
10.25
X/X
10%
5.87
2/1
9%
21.7
2/2
11%
7.64
2/X
6%
16.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.7 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton The Market 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City The Market 23%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.32/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/2.23
+6% / +111% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses 25.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Swansea City
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.91 xG 0.97
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
436 Passes 412
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.01.2024 Swansea City Swansea City 1-3 HT 1-3 Southampton Southampton İNCL
26.12.2023 Southampton Southampton 5-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
08.01.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 2-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton FAK
08.05.2018 Swansea City Swansea City 0-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
12.08.2017 Southampton Southampton 0-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNP
31.01.2017 Swansea City Swansea City 2-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
3-0
AWAY Swansea City
2.48 xG 0.31
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
402 Passes 395
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
37 Box Touches 10
9 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Southampton vs Swansea City
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Southampton overpowered Swansea City 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 54% and both teams to score at 52%. At 1.72 (~58%), the BTTS-yes price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.

The match data tells the story: Swansea City saw more of the ball, 51% to 49%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.48 to 0.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 2.17 a game for Southampton against 0.83 for Swansea City.

Southampton vs Swansea City Result & Final Score

Southampton 3-0 Swansea City in the England - FA Cup on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Southampton vs Swansea City Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Southampton 49%, draw 25%, Swansea City 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FAK More England - FA Cup
12 Jan 2025
15:00 Hull City vs Doncaster Rovers Analysis →
15:30 Tamworth vs Tottenham Analysis →
18:00 Crystal Palace vs Stockport County Analysis →
18:00 Ipswich Town vs Bristol Rovers Analysis →
18:00 Arsenal vs Manchester United Analysis →
18:00 Newcastle vs Bromley Analysis →