Swansea City 1-3 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 20 Jan 2024

Swansea City
1-3 HT 1-3
Southampton
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Swansea City vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.48
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
48%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
9%
7.44
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.86 — our 27% vs market 15.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.49
1/2
8%
20.5
1/X
7%
14.9
X/1
10%
10.75
X/2
18%
4.09
X/X
11%
6.07
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
22%
1.98
2/X
7%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
19%
+8.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
48%
Away Win
58%
-10.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swansea City v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.90/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.72
+20% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +39%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 491 · 83%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 42.9
12.1 Crosses 17.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Swansea City vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Southampton
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.68 xG 1.63
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
422 Passes 400
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
26.12.2023 Southampton Southampton 5-0 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
08.01.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 2-3 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton FAK
08.05.2018 Swansea City Swansea City 0-1 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
12.08.2017 Southampton Southampton 0-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNP
31.01.2017 Swansea City Swansea City 2-1 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
18.09.2016 Southampton Southampton 1-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNP

Swansea City 1-3 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-3
AWAY Southampton
2.41 xG 3.32
33% Ball Possession 67%
15 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 8
254 Passes 585
81% Pass Accuracy 90%
21 Box Touches 51
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Southampton beat Swansea City 3-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Southampton as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Swansea City had 33% of the ball to Southampton's 67%, shots finished 15-21, expected goals 2.41 to 3.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Swansea City and 1.83 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Southampton?

Swansea City 1-3 Southampton in the England - Championship on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 27%, draw 25%, Southampton 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Southampton), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Southampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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