Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Cardiff City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 20 Jan 2024

📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.44
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.43
6+ Goals
12%
13.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.31
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
8%
12.55
X/1
10%
5.19
X/2
17%
6.08
X/X
11%
4.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
27.0
2/2
11%
4.13
2/X
7%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 10% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 36%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +24%
1.48/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.26
+59% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
287 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 71%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
16.9 Crosses 16.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Plymouth Argyle
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cardiff City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
444 Passes 410
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 21
6 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
26.12.2023 Cardiff City Cardiff City 2-2 HT 1-1 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
21.07.2017 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City HAZ
26.12.2009 Cardiff City Cardiff City 0-1 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
18.08.2009 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-3 HT 0-1 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
28.12.2008 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 0-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNCL
22.11.2008 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-1 HT 2-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3-1
AWAY Cardiff City
1.71 xG 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
299 Passes 371
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 8
17 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle beat Cardiff City 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Plymouth Argyle found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 45% of the ball to Cardiff City's 55%, shots finished 15-6, expected goals 1.71 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cardiff City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Plymouth Argyle and 1.33 for Cardiff City.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City?

Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Cardiff City in the England - Championship on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Cardiff City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 39%, draw 26%, Cardiff City 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Plymouth Argyle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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