PSG 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 12 Jan 2025

PSG
2-1 HT 2-0
Saint-Etienne
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

PSG vs Saint-Etienne Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.78
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
4.58
Over 2.5
63%
1.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
10.9
2-3 Goals
39%
2.63
4-5 Goals
27%
2.25
6+ Goals
17%
3.04
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.21
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
34.5
X/1
17%
3.83
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
8%
16.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.35
2/2
6%
28.0
2/X
5%
33.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.35 — our 11% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
82%
-14.8pp
18%
Draw
10%
+7.3pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.5pp
37%
Under 2.5
18%
+18.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
82%
-18.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.6pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Saint-Etienne — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 9%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
2.35/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.30
+13% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -25%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
512 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 78%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
15.6 Crosses 12.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

PSG vs Saint-Etienne Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.35 xG 0.94
67% Ball Possession 33%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
580 Passes 234
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.02.2022 PSG PSG 3-1 HT 1-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
28.11.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-3 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FR1
18.04.2021 PSG PSG 3-2 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
06.01.2021 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 1-1 HT 1-1 PSG PSG FR1
24.07.2020 PSG PSG 1-0 HT 1-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FRK
08.01.2020 PSG PSG 6-1 HT 3-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FRLK

PSG 2-1 Saint-Etienne — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
2-1
AWAY Saint-Etienne
4.07 xG 0.37
59% Ball Possession 41%
25 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
534 Passes 349
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
48 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSG vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG edged past Saint-Etienne 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, PSG had 59% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 41%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 4.07 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSG's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for PSG and 1.00 for Saint-Etienne.

What was the final score of PSG vs Saint-Etienne?

PSG 2-1 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 1 on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split PSG 68%, draw 18%, Saint-Etienne 14%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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