Le Havre 1-2 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 12 Jan 2025

Le Havre
1-2 HT 1-1
Lens
📅12/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Le Havre vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
51%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.17
2-3 Goals
46%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
8%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
9.37
1/2
11%
24.7
1/X
9%
17.5
X/1
9%
11.35
X/2
26%
3.73
X/X
7%
5.25
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.0
2/X
11%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
17%
+4.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
51%
Away Win
59%
-7.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Le Havre v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 62%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.14/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.87
-42% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 81%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.6
13.5 Crosses 23.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Le Havre vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Lens
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.33 xG 1.14
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
259 Passes 391
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.04.2024 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1
20.10.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
31.01.2020 Le Havre Le Havre 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR2
17.08.2019 Lens Lens 1-3 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
01.04.2019 Lens Lens 0-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
27.10.2018 Le Havre Le Havre 2-1 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR2

Le Havre 1-2 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
1-2
AWAY Lens
1.88 xG 2.79
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 8
167 Passes 476
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 50
17 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens nicked a narrow win over Le Havre 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Le Havre had 30% of the ball to Lens's 70%, shots finished 8-25, expected goals 1.88 to 2.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Havre had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Le Havre and 0.50 for Lens.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Lens?

Le Havre 1-2 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 22%, draw 27%, Lens 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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