NAC Breda 2-4 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 12 Jan 2025

📅12/01/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
35%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
17.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.04
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
16%
4.69
X/2
15%
6.73
X/X
10%
4.35
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
13%
5.07
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.7pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.5pp
34%
Away Win
28%
+6.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.78/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.25
-3% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
321 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
25.9 Crosses 17.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heerenveen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.63 xG 1.37
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 Passes 323
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Heerenveen Heerenveen 4-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
07.02.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOK
01.08.2020 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HAZ
12.05.2019 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
22.12.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-2 HT 1-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
29.04.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-0 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
2-4
AWAY Heerenveen
1.15 xG 1.87
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
378 Passes 339
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen beat NAC Breda 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 54% of the ball to Heerenveen's 46%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.15 to 1.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for NAC Breda and 1.67 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?

NAC Breda 2-4 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 12/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 42%, draw 23%, Heerenveen 34%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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