Heerenveen 4-0 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
32%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.49
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.08
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
15%
4.18
X/2
14%
10.2
X/X
11%
5.68
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
11%
7.23
2/X
7%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-11.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
20%
+12.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.2pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 23%
-7% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.83/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.55
-9% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.7 Crosses 16.7
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
3W-0D-3L
AWAY NAC Breda
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.25 xG 1.45
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
300 Passes 346
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.02.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-1 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOK
01.08.2020 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HAZ
12.05.2019 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
22.12.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 4-2 HT 1-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
29.04.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-0 HT 2-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
16.12.2017 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
4-0
AWAY NAC Breda
2.60 xG 1.72
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
474 Passes 257
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 15
10 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen ran out comfortable winners over NAC Breda 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heerenveen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 62% of the ball to NAC Breda's 38%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.60 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heerenveen and 1.67 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs NAC Breda?

Heerenveen 4-0 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 45%, draw 23%, NAC Breda 32%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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