Willem II 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.21
2-3 Goals
45%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
9%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.21 — our 26% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
4.39
1/2
8%
27.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
11%
6.18
X/2
12%
4.98
X/X
16%
4.5
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
13%
3.24
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
32%
+7.8pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
32%
Away Win
41%
-8.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 45%
-9% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.02/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.25
-13% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 76%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
21.1 Crosses 17.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.24 xG 1.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
321 Passes 297
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
12 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.07.2024 Willem II Willem II 2-4 HT 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
29.07.2023 Willem II Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HAZ
13.02.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
06.11.2021 Willem II Willem II 0-3 HT 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
28.02.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 0-2 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL
13.12.2020 Willem II Willem II 1-3 HT 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
1-2
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.39 xG 0.93
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
364 Passes 506
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam squeezed past Willem II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Sparta Rotterdam made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Willem II had 43% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 57%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.39 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Willem II and 2.33 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Willem II 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Willem II 40%, draw 28%, Sparta Rotterdam 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Willem II), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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