Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sevilla v Celta Vigo — Team-Based Signals
Sevilla vs Celta Vigo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Sevilla 0-1 Celta Vigo — Actual Match Statistics
Celta Vigo squeezed past Sevilla 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) promised a tight game; Celta Vigo found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Sevilla had 59% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 41%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.29 to 1.63 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Celta Vigo's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sevilla and 1.50 for Celta Vigo.
What was the final score of Sevilla vs Celta Vigo?
Sevilla 0-1 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Primera Liga on 12/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Celta Vigo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 40%, draw 27%, Celta Vigo 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sevilla) went the other way.