Celta Vigo 3-2 Sevilla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 10 May 2025

📅10/05/2025 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
1.8
Over
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.08
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5
23%
3.66
6+
11%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.54
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
11%
13.75
X/1
20%
4.48
X/2
8%
8.24
X/X
11%
4.72
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
10%
6.51
2/X
6%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.3pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Sevilla EU Bookmakers 27%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
1.49/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.43
+14% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
17.8 Crosses 17.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Sevilla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.35 xG 0.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
399 Passes 368
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.12.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
17.03.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 1-2 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
04.11.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
07.04.2023 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
30.12.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
22.01.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 2-2 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
3-2
AWAY Sevilla
0.88 xG 2.31
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 6
408 Passes 384
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 22
8 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Sevilla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo nicked a narrow win over Sevilla 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 50% of the ball to Sevilla's 50%, shots finished 8-19, expected goals 0.88 to 2.31 — on chances, Sevilla could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.33 for Sevilla.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?

Celta Vigo 3-2 Sevilla in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Sevilla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 45%, draw 28%, Sevilla 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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