Girona vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Girona v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals
Girona vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
Girona
İS1
1-2
HT 1-1
Villarreal
İS1
1-0
HT 0-0
Girona
İS1
0-1
HT 0-1
Villarreal
İSPK
Girona 0-1 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics
Villarreal nicked a narrow win over Girona 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (38% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Villarreal found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Girona had 55% of the ball to Villarreal's 45%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.24 to 2.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Villarreal's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Girona and 1.33 for Villarreal.
What was the final score of Girona vs Villarreal?
Girona 0-1 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 10/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Girona vs Villarreal?
Before kick-off our model rated a Girona win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Girona 38%, draw 29%, Villarreal 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.