Estoril U23 1-0 Benfica U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 12 Mar 2024

📅12/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
16%
3.72
Away
47%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.89
Over 2.5
54%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.38
No
52%
2.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
3%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-7.2pp
16%
Draw
23%
-7.2pp
46%
Away Win
32%
+14.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
31%
+15.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
69%
-15.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
68%
-20.4pp
52%
BTTS No
32%
+20.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril U23 EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica U23 EU Bookmakers 36%
-37% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -45% / -45%
1.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/3.00
-51% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -43%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril U23
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Benfica U23
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
20 Total Shots 18
12 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.01.2024 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 1-3 HT 1-0 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 PORU23
07.10.2023 Benfica U23 Benfica U23 3-4 HT 2-2 Estoril U23 Estoril U23 UŞGB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril U23
1-0
AWAY Benfica U23
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril U23 vs Benfica U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril U23 nicked a narrow win over Benfica U23 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica U23 at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Estoril U23 had 53% of the ball to Benfica U23's 47%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Estoril U23 had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Estoril U23 and 2.00 for Benfica U23.

What was the final score of Estoril U23 vs Benfica U23?

Estoril U23 1-0 Benfica U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 12/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril U23 vs Benfica U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Estoril U23 37%, draw 16%, Benfica U23 46%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Benfica U23), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica U23) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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