ND Primorje 2-1 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 12 Mar 2025

📅12/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
53%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.72
6+ Goals
8%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
27%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
17%
+5.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
53%
Away Win
59%
-6.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.6pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ND Primorje EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 62%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -18%
1.04/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.94
+7% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
242 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ND Primorje
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Maribor
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
42% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 ND Primorje ND Primorje 2-0 HT 1-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
01.09.2024 Maribor Maribor 4-1 HT 3-1 ND Primorje ND Primorje SLVN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ND Primorje
2-1
AWAY Maribor
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH ND Primorje vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ND Primorje squeezed past Maribor 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ND Primorje had 49% of the ball to Maribor's 51%, shots finished 7-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ND Primorje and 2.00 for Maribor.

What was the final score of ND Primorje vs Maribor?

ND Primorje 2-1 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 12/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ND Primorje vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split ND Primorje 22%, draw 25%, Maribor 53%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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