AFC Hornchurch 1-3 Truro City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
48%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.67
Over
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.55
2-3
38%
1.73
4-5
17%
4.22
6+
9%
21.55
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.55 — our 36% vs market 31.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
21%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
47%
Away Win
49%
-1.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Hornchurch EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Truro City EU Bookmakers 53%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.99/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.03
-18% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +13%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
202 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Hornchurch
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Truro City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2025 Truro City Truro City 2-1 HT 0-0 AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Hornchurch
1-3
AWAY Truro City
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Hornchurch vs Truro City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Truro City got the better of AFC Hornchurch 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Truro City as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Hornchurch had 50% of the ball to Truro City's 50%, shots finished 9-7.

What was the final score of AFC Hornchurch vs Truro City?

AFC Hornchurch 1-3 Truro City in the England - Conference on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Hornchurch vs Truro City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Truro City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split AFC Hornchurch 27%, draw 25%, Truro City 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Truro City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Truro City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İCON More England - Conference
12 Apr 2025
00:00 Weston-super-Mare vs Tonbridge Angels Analysis →
17:00 Chelmsford City vs Enfield Town Analysis →
17:00 Maidstone United vs Weymouth Analysis →
17:00 Hampton & Richmond vs Welling United Analysis →
17:00 Torquay United vs Slough Town Analysis →
17:00 Worthing vs Chippenham Town Analysis →