Chesham United 2-1 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
35%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.97
Over
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No Pick
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.46
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
25%
3.21
6+
8%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.46 — our 30% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
37%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
36%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.0pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesham United EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.32/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.40
-1% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
315 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesham United
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Farnborough
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 0
04.02.2025 Farnborough Farnborough 2-1 HT 1-0 Chesham United Chesham United İCON
08.02.2022 Farnborough Farnborough 1-0 HT 1-0 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
17.08.2021 Chesham United Chesham United 1-3 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Chesham United vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesham United edged past Farnborough 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Chesham United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Farnborough led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Chesham United and 2.00 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Chesham United vs Farnborough?

Chesham United 2-1 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesham United vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesham United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chesham United 40%, draw 25%, Farnborough 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesham United) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chesham United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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