Farnborough 2-1 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 4 Feb 2025

📅04/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.9
Over
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.19
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
22%
3.32
6+
6%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.19 — our 31% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.9pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farnborough EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.16/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.15
-17% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
311 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farnborough
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Chesham United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2022 Farnborough Farnborough 1-0 HT 1-0 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
17.08.2021 Chesham United Chesham United 1-3 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Farnborough vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough edged past Chesham United 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Farnborough found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Farnborough had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Farnborough and 0.50 for Chesham United.

What was the final score of Farnborough vs Chesham United?

Farnborough 2-1 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 04/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farnborough vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Farnborough 39%, draw 24%, Chesham United 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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