Merthyr Town 1-2 Poole Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.33
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
24%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
30%
Over Pick
70%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.81
No
44%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
18%
2-3
37%
4-5
36%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-14.2pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.0pp
24%
Away Win
14%
+10.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.6pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Poole Town EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
3.01/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.88
+33% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Poole Town
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
14.12.2024 Poole Town Poole Town 1-6 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
06.04.2024 Poole Town Poole Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
28.11.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
14.03.2023 Poole Town Poole Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
27.08.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Poole Town Poole Town İNGNLP
12.02.2022 Poole Town Poole Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merthyr Town
1-2
AWAY Poole Town
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs Poole Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Poole Town squeezed past Merthyr Town 2-1 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Merthyr Town carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (70%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Merthyr Town had 63% of the ball to Poole Town's 37%, shots finished 9-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Poole Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Merthyr Town and 1.67 for Poole Town.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs Poole Town?

Merthyr Town 1-2 Poole Town in the England - Non League Premier on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs Poole Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 56%, draw 20%, Poole Town 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNGNLP More England - Non League Premier
12 Apr 2025
17:00 Morpeth Town vs Basford United Analysis →
17:00 Halesowen Town vs Barwell Analysis →
17:00 Royston Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting Analysis →
17:00 Bishops Stortford vs Kettering Town Analysis →
17:00 Lowestoft Town vs Bedford Town Analysis →
17:00 Harborough Town vs St Ives Town Analysis →