AC Milan (K) 5-3 Fiorentina (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italya - Women's Serie A, 12 Apr 2025

AC Milan (K)
5-3 HT 2-1
Fiorentina (K)
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italya - Women's Serie A – 2024/2025

AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-2.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.6pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AC Milan (K) v Fiorentina (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Milan (K) EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina (K) EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +86% / -28%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
373 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
– Crosses 21.0
– Yellow Cards 2.0

AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Milan (K)
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Fiorentina (K)
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.47 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
334 Passes 282
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
25 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.03.2025 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) İTKSA
24.11.2024 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) 2-2 HT 2-0 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) İTKSA
14.09.2024 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) 1-2 HT 1-2 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) İTKSA
03.02.2024 AC Milan (K) AC Milan (K) 2-2 HT 2-1 Fiorentina (K) Fiorentina (K) İTKSA

AC Milan (K) 5-3 Fiorentina (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Milan (K)
5-3
AWAY Fiorentina (K)
2.34 xG 1.45
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
336 Passes 383
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Milan (K) saw off Fiorentina (K) 5-3. Half-time: 2-1. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; AC Milan (K) found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, AC Milan (K) had 47% of the ball to Fiorentina (K)'s 53%, shots finished 15-17, expected goals 2.34 to 1.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fiorentina (K) led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for AC Milan (K) and 1.50 for Fiorentina (K).

What was the final score of AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K)?

AC Milan (K) 5-3 Fiorentina (K) in the Italya - Women's Serie A on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Milan (K) vs Fiorentina (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Milan (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AC Milan (K) 40%, draw 29%, Fiorentina (K) 31%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Milan (K)), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AC Milan (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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