Monaco 3-0 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 12 Apr 2025

Monaco
3-0 HT 1-0
Marsilya
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Monaco vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.4
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
25%
2.61
6+ Goals
14%
6.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.53
1/2
7%
30.0
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
19%
5.07
X/2
7%
8.05
X/X
16%
6.26
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.15
2/2
13%
5.14
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.15 — our 9% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.9pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.5pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monaco v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.62/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.45
-9% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
17.0 Crosses 14.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Monaco vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Marsilya
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.12 xG 1.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
268 Passes 501
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.12.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-1 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
27.01.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
30.09.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-2 HT 2-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
28.01.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.11.2022 Monaco Monaco 2-3 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
06.03.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 0-1 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1

Monaco 3-0 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
3-0
AWAY Marsilya
2.67 xG 1.06
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
326 Passes 501
81% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco cruised past Marsilya 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (56%) landed while both teams to score (58%) missed.

On the day, Monaco had 41% of the ball to Marsilya's 59%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.67 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monaco and 1.67 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Marsilya?

Monaco 3-0 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Monaco 45%, draw 28%, Marsilya 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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