Marsilya 2-1 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Dec 2024

Marsilya
2-1 HT 0-1
Monaco
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Marsilya vs Monaco Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
45%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
13%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.0
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
11%
6.51
X/2 EV+ ✗
19%
6.61
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
18%
4.08
2/X
10%
13.6
Value flag · X/2 at 6.61 — our 19% vs market 12.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
37%
-7.6pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
45%
Away Win
36%
+8.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.6pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v Monaco — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +21%
1.66/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.30
+12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
21.7 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5

Marsilya vs Monaco Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Monaco
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.56 xG 1.09
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
471 Passes 290
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Marsilya Marsilya 2-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
30.09.2023 Monaco Monaco 3-2 HT 2-2 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
28.01.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
13.11.2022 Monaco Monaco 2-3 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
06.03.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 0-1 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
11.09.2021 Monaco Monaco 0-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 2-1 Monaco — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
2-1
AWAY Monaco
1.94 xG 1.02
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
563 Passes 283
86% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Monaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya edged past Monaco 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Monaco at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Marsilya had 63% of the ball to Monaco's 37%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.94 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Marsilya and 1.50 for Monaco.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Monaco?

Marsilya 2-1 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Monaco?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 29%, draw 26%, Monaco 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monaco) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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