Montpellier 2-2 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Dec 2024

Montpellier
2-2 HT 1-1
Lille
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
49%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.53
6+ Goals
11%
13.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.63
1/2
9%
28.0
1/X
7%
16.35
X/1
10%
10.05
X/2
14%
4.7
X/X
10%
5.36
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
26%
2.58
2/X
7%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
49%
Away Win
52%
-3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 56%
-1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -6%
1.11/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.11
-31% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
271 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 415 · 81%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.8
17.8 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Montpellier vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lille
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.57 xG 1.40
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
260 Passes 430
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.01.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
03.09.2023 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
16.04.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
04.09.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-3 HT 1-1 Lille Lille FR1
12.02.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 0-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
29.08.2021 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 1-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Montpellier 2-2 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
2-2
AWAY Lille
1.47 xG 2.22
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
239 Passes 384
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier and Lille couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lille at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Montpellier had 42% of the ball to Lille's 58%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.47 to 2.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Montpellier and 1.50 for Lille.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Lille?

Montpellier 2-2 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 27%, draw 24%, Lille 49%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lille) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✓ Over 2.5
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