Toulouse 2-0 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Dec 2024

📅01/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 30% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.3
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.15
X/1
20%
4.55
X/2
10%
11.75
X/X
10%
5.9
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
9%
8.85
2/X
10%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
19%
+6.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.1pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.57/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.69
-2% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.3 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Auxerre
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.26 xG 0.90
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
369 Passes 290
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.05.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
11.01.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 0-5 HT 0-3 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
19.03.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
16.10.2021 Toulouse Toulouse 6-0 HT 3-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
02.02.2021 Auxerre Auxerre 3-1 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR2
26.09.2020 Toulouse Toulouse 3-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
2-0
AWAY Auxerre
2.33 xG 0.16
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 2
347 Passes 310
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 11
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse got the better of Auxerre 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Toulouse had 51% of the ball to Auxerre's 49%, shots finished 12-4, expected goals 2.33 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Toulouse and 1.00 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Auxerre?

Toulouse 2-0 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 49%, draw 25%, Auxerre 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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