Lyon 4-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 1 Dec 2024

Lyon
4-1 HT 3-1
Nice
📅01/12/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Lyon vs Nice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.25
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
6.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.32
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
16.15
X/1
16%
4.8
X/2
9%
10.85
X/X
11%
7.06
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.0
2/2
11%
7.22
2/X
8%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.7pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Nice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +29%
1.92/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.48
-9% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +41%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
407 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 81%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
18.7 Crosses 11.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Lyon vs Nice Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nice
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 1.54
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
477 Passes 370
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.02.2024 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
27.08.2023 Nice Nice 0-0 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
03.06.2023 Nice Nice 3-1 HT 3-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
11.11.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 0-1 Nice Nice FR1
12.02.2022 Lyon Lyon 2-0 HT 1-0 Nice Nice FR1
24.10.2021 Nice Nice 3-2 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 4-1 Nice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
4-1
AWAY Nice
2.86 xG 2.16
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
376 Passes 342
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
32 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon ran out comfortable winners over Nice 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lyon had 53% of the ball to Nice's 47%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.86 to 2.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lyon and 1.17 for Nice.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Nice?

Lyon 4-1 Nice in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lyon 52%, draw 23%, Nice 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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