Toulouse 1-2 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 12 Apr 2025

Toulouse
1-2 HT 1-2
Lille
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Toulouse vs Lille Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
44%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.71
Over 2.5
48%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.01
6+ Goals
9%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.64
1/2
12%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
7%
6.32
X/2
10%
5.19
X/X
13%
4.24
2/1
10%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.42
2/X
8%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.5pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
55%
-2.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Lille — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 43%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.26/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.04
-18% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +16%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 407 · 82%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
18.1 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Toulouse vs Lille Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lille
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.17 xG 1.58
43% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
314 Passes 464
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.10.2024 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
25.02.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 3-1 HT 0-1 Lille Lille FR1
12.11.2023 Lille Lille 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.03.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
17.09.2022 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
22.02.2020 Lille Lille 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1

Toulouse 1-2 Lille — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
1-2
AWAY Lille
0.91 xG 0.51
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
355 Passes 511
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille nicked a narrow win over Toulouse 2-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Toulouse had 43% of the ball to Lille's 57%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 0.91 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Toulouse and 1.83 for Lille.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Lille?

Toulouse 1-2 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 28%, draw 28%, Lille 43%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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