Suwon City 3-2 Gimcheon Sangmu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.39
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.65
6+ Goals
9%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 28% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.29
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
9%
13.75
X/1
13%
7.23
X/2
13%
4.9
X/X
11%
4.7
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.9
2/X
6%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Suwon City EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu EU Bookmakers 49%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -35% / -35%
0.72/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/0.90
+31% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
13.9 Crosses 23.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Suwon City
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.23 xG 0.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
376 Passes 365
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 1-0 HT 1-0 Suwon City Suwon City GKOR
21.09.2024 Suwon City Suwon City 2-4 HT 1-2 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOR
09.07.2024 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu 2-3 HT 0-2 Suwon City Suwon City GKOR
30.03.2024 Suwon City Suwon City 1-4 HT 0-3 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
02.10.2022 Suwon City Suwon City 2-2 HT 2-1 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
13.09.2022 Suwon City Suwon City 2-1 HT 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu Gimcheon Sangmu GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Suwon City
3-2
AWAY Gimcheon Sangmu
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
318 Passes 280
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Suwon City vs Gimcheon Sangmu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Suwon City squeezed past Gimcheon Sangmu 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gimcheon Sangmu at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Suwon City had 52% of the ball to Gimcheon Sangmu's 48%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimcheon Sangmu led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Suwon City and 2.33 for Gimcheon Sangmu.

What was the final score of Suwon City vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Suwon City 3-2 Gimcheon Sangmu in the South Kore - K League Classic on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Suwon City vs Gimcheon Sangmu?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gimcheon Sangmu win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Suwon City 33%, draw 26%, Gimcheon Sangmu 41%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gimcheon Sangmu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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12 Apr 2025
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