Mazatlan 1-1 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.54
Over 2.5
46%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.27
2-3 Goals
45%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
4.9
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+4.7pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.1pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
61%
-7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
39%
+7.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.30/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.06
+18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
268 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 80%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
17.3 Crosses 18.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.05 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
306 Passes 370
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
17.02.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
27.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-3 HT 0-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
30.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 4-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
06.08.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
10.01.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 3-0 HT 3-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
1-1
AWAY Guadalajara
1.44 xG 0.63
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 2
283 Passes 255
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 10
26 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan and Guadalajara couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 52% of the ball to Guadalajara's 48%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.44 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mazatlan and 2.17 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Guadalajara?

Mazatlan 1-1 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 35%, draw 30%, Guadalajara 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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