Necaxa 3-5 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.33
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-0.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.4pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.17/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.38
-3% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
282 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 81%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
19.5 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.87 xG 2.22
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
182 Passes 371
65% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 6-2 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
06.05.2024 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
24.02.2024 Necaxa Necaxa 1-1 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
01.10.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 1-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
30.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.07.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 1-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
3-5
AWAY Pachuca
0.55 xG 1.74
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 12
8 Corners 4
257 Passes 243
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca saw off Necaxa 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Pachuca made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Necaxa had 52% of the ball to Pachuca's 48%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 0.55 to 1.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Necaxa and 2.00 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Pachuca?

Necaxa 3-5 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 40%, draw 27%, Pachuca 34%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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