Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.51
Over Pick
51%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1
26%
5.12
2-3
39%
1.96
4-5
22%
2.6
6+
13%
6.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-7.8pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.0pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+2.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
36%
+12.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
64%
-12.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.4pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +58% / +58%
1.93/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/1.00
+0% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +64%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
420 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Zaglebie Sosnowiec
6.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
16.10.2024 Zaglebie Sosnowiec Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-6 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki POL2
POST-MATCH Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki edged past Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

What was the final score of Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-2 Zaglebie Sosnowiec in the Poland - 2nd Division on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 50%, draw 27%, Zaglebie Sosnowiec 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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